Option 1 – Stunty Dodge – 2+ rush, (3+) for 1D with block
The obvious first option is to simply to rush with E or D around the back to tag #5 then Stunty Dodge between 2 and 3 to Block with 1D with block using the Catcher (25% to get the knockdown overall for the 2,(3),1D, 45% with 1RR).
Before making those moves we could get some players downfield and tag the others but realistically, as the ball carrier is a pogoer, if we fail the rush or dodge then the fail state on any of those rolls means I won’t be able to catch up next turn.
So, is there a way to get a better outcome likelihood or better fail states?
Surf the ball carrier?
I looked at this position and it’s pretty clear that if I could move the ball carrier one square left with a chain push, then I could force the ball carrier off the field. To get that chain, we could push down into #2 after filling the T with #3
F comes down to assist J, H comes to assist A and B swings to the sideline to cancel #1. Then J hits 3 and follows and A then hits down into 4 and pushes him to the sideline
From there we simply blitz #1 from the Top with our Catcher #C, pushing down into #4 and surfing 4
The sequence is 2D accepting pushes or pow (8/9), 2D accepting pushes or pow (8/9), 2D accepting pushes or pow (8/9).
That’s 70% for the surf. Once off the field one of the free flings could move toward the ball and, if necessary, a tree could move to toss one.
If we powed and removed #3, we could Stunty dodge one of our non-activated Flings into the space vacated (total odds drop to 62%). If we removed #2 then same again, 3+ into the vacated gap.
1D/2D downwards
Surfing the ball carrier obviously feels good, but ~1/3 of the ball back-in throws would take the ball toward the fling endzone and possibly no fling could reach without a Tree getting involved… the Goblins #5 or #6 might be favourite to score.
So, perhaps we should at least explore a different option?
We could move B and H as previously and then #A could hit #1 with 2D. On a Pow, D could swing around to the free square and provide an assist for C to come in a 2D with block the ball carrier if #1 was knocked down, or 1D if #1 was pushed.
31% overall to get the knockdown via this option before RRs. I don’t think I would RR a blockless 2D with A as the 1/9 fail state is terrible, but I would RR the 1D or 2D hit on the ball carrier.
F, G, and E are not needed for this play and J is still available to dodge. J (Hefty) is the most likely recovery piece here and theoretically could scoop up the ball and pass it to E/G to scamper away from the Goblins.
The problem with this play is #4 is being knocked down into the gap between 5 and 6. We would follow up a pow, but still there is a high chance the ball would end up in at least one, possibly 2TZ, or off the field, or be caught be a Goblin.
Blocks instead of Rushes
A different way to get something similar to the first option is to send H down to assist from the NE and take the 2D hit on #3 with J first.
If the hit is a pow, we can put him down in the North option and not follow. Then we can tag #5 with G and Blitz the ball on a (3) with C.
If not a pow, we can follow and rush Blitz, or we could follow, fill the rest of the box, and block SE with A to chain the gap open again with J now tagging #5.
This leaves the same hole we started with the 3+ in for 1D, pushing ball carrier NW next to the side-line.
This sequence is very slightly better than the first rush version as we are doing 1 or 2 x 1/81 fail-state for the blocks instead of 1/36 for the rush (both situations we would put in RRs). We can also move a couple more pieces for free early to cover the fail state a little better. And, we are taking 2 extra punches = extra chance for removals.
What I did
I did something similar to the last option and was sad to get pushes and more pushes. I abandoned the sack and blitzed #5 to have as many players deep as possible. DaGobbo next turn got the ball carrier downfield but in a way that left a 2+ for 2D with block. I snaked the 2+ and the Goblins scored.
Having looked at it again, I would have done the surf play.
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