Bloodbowl Puzzle #8 (TT)

This is a relatively easy puzzle with at least two viable options from a game at Hawaiian bowl with my OWA vs Alex Leipziger’s Orcs. It’s 0-0, turn 14 and the Orcs have reached desperation stage, pushing forward but only into a shakey sideline cage. The OWA have 1 RR left. What’s the play?

This is game 2 of a 6 game tournament, we both won game 1.

Orcs (yellow) – L=Lino, Th=Thrower, G=Goblin, Z=Blitzer (Block), T=Troll.

OWA (red) – D = dorf lino (Block), L = human lino, O=Ogre, Th=thrower, HZ = human blitzer (Block, MB), C= human catcher.

What would you do?

Option 1 Uphill Troll

This one should be pretty obvious – D1 can immediately hit into the Troll for -2D, A push or better forces the Goblin behind the Thrower, he follows completing the T, then the Catcher and Human Blitzer can 2D into the front Orc Blitzer, surfing the ball carrier.

-2D needing pushes or better is 44%/69%* with RR, then 2D needing pushes or better means total odds for surfing the ball carrier is 39%/65%.

Decent.

*those stats for a push/pow but a both down on the Troll doesn’t end the chance, we can pivot to the fling option.

But a skull is pretty bad; quite easy for the orcs to get downfield and score. So we look at options to consider before rolling these dice. Do you stand Thrower or Lino2? Do you take the Block with D2? If it’s just a push (not a pow), do you choose to chain the L3 lino to the back corner square instead of the Goblin? And do you move the assist piece into position before or after taking the -2D.

Those decisions are all about whether you are thinking about success state vs fail state. IF the play works, you don’t know if the ball will be thrown back into play. SW and the Catcher is your recovery piece. W, most likely your Catcher is still the best bet whereas NW it could be the L2 or Fling.

On that basis, I think I stand the Thrower but leave L2 down, although standing him adds another roll to the Orcs turn if the -2D fails. The D2 hit waits until after the hit, you aren’t going to move the fling until you know where the ball goes, so the D2 hit is a dub skull risk for not much value.

Option 2: Fling option

We can fill the square behind the Thrower using a fling stunty dodge. The route here is D2 hits L1 (2D, pushes or better), D1 hits L2 (2D pow preferred, pushes adds a dodge). If those are OK, then fling does either 2 or 3 dodges and a rush to get to the square. Then we 2D in front as before. You could also 2D with the Ogre to reduce a Dodge but the odds are the same. If the D1 hit is a pow, then L1 can become the assisting piece and HZ does the blitz, leaving the catcher completely free and the blitzer with some movement to recover/screen the ball location..

The overall odds here are ~41%/~65%. More dice rolls are required, but it is pretty much the same odds as the uphill.

So the decision becomes more about the order of the dice and fail states. Here the first two rolls are 97% 2D blocks, and if the second is a pow, we get to have the L1 free to move before the fling 332. If the fling dodges/rush fails (or we decide not to RR the rush/dodge, then We are pretty nicely jammed in and the Orcs are in trouble.

As a counterpoint, perhaps the uphill version has better recovery options? The Fling can be free’d to head downfield for option 1.

Option 3: Blitz the Blitzer First

This option is a bit less obvious, certainly I didn’t consider it as viable at the time. First action here is to 2D Blitz the blitzer, pushing him to the sideline and following. You then 2D clear L1 and do 3x stunty 3+ dodges with the fling to complete the double T, the -2D with D1.

You are about 42% to get to the -2D without using a RR and likely you would choose not to use a RR for anything other than dub skulls on the first hit. The -2D is worth considering a RR for (I’d say yes) so the overally odds are 18%/38% to get the surf.

The odds are objectively worse of getting the surf and are worse in terms of recovery BUT the fail state is arguably the best yet. The position if the fling dodges fail is everything is jammed in pretty tight, the blitzer might be down, the ball is based and the route to clear is likely dependent on troll hit to open followed by blitzer blitzing blodge. The Orcs will need some big dice.

It’s certainly a more conservative option, but possibly the best of the three in terms of highest non-losing but still trying to win.

What would you do now you know the odds?

Something else?

What I did

I played this turn starting thinking about the fling option. I stood the thrower, then took the D2 hit on lino 1... but double skulls! I put the RR in to fix the problem but for some reason decided then to pivot to the -2D Troll option 1. This was objectively wrong, the fling dodges were still on (or perhaps I should have gone for option 3 at that point). My -2D hit yielded a skull and, as a result, Alex had a lot of free pieces to head downfield next turn. I did get another shot at the ball, but sadly failed and lost 1-0.

After reflecting on the position here... I would have played that turn differently!