CLAW Blood Bowl

If you’ve read any of my recent posts, you’ll know that when an idea feels a bit mad, I’ll immediately try to work out exactly how unlikely it is. Today is one of those days.

We’re going to look at Human (and OWA) one‑turn touchdowns, although the same logic partly applies to Chaos Renegades, Underworld, or Goblins with a Pogoer. What these teams have in common is that they all have a more‑or‑less viable push‑based OTTD option and a throw‑teammate option.

Let’s stick to Humans and situations when you have an OTTD attempt against a defence without major anti‑OTTD skills (Side Step, Stand Firm, etc.), do you attempt the TTM, the pushes, or try for both?

I don’t know how that poll will pan out, but my prediction is that we’ll see a mix of all three. Personally, I almost always go for both. But the real answer depends on the defensive setup, number of rerolls, whether it’s T8 or T16, weather, and which specific pieces you have available.*

\* From now on, assume we have an Ogre + Fling (obviously), a Thrower, at least one Catcher, and at least one Blitzer.

One important implication of having this option is that the defence should respect that both are viable. This usually means a set up with three pieces on the LOS and the remaining eight either as a full backline or, if they have fewer than 11 pieces, a five‑player backline with two in the landing zone around the sweet spot to contest the landing.

I’m clearly going somewhere, but let’s first look at what’s needed against the contested backline.

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An MA8 player needs at least three forward squares of movement, so you need a Blitz + two Blocks. The first two hits must be pushes; the third can be a pow. If you get those three pushes, you can take a fourth square to reduce rushes, but you don’t need it to attempt a Catcher OTTD.

So let’s look at the odds:

• 2D push (55%), 2D push (55%), 2D pow/push (89%) → 27%, or 55% with 1 RR

Often the second and third hits can be 3D in tournament builds with Guard, depending on the opponent. If you can make them 3D:

• 2D push (55%), 3D push (70%), 3D pow/push (97%) → 37%, or 67% with 1 RR

You can also build in redundancy: if you roll a pow on the first or second hit, you can continue the attempt. This conditional bailout usually ends up as a 2D, giving something like 41%, or 69% with RR.

Together your push-OTTD will fail to generate enough forward movement somewhere between 73% and 31% of attempts.

^^we’re going to need this number later ^^

Throughout this sequence, it’s hard to know if you should use the RR to turn a 1/9 or pow into a push or whether to pivot to try the fling toss instead. We’ll look at the odds and come back to this point later.

After the Pushes

If you successfully make all the pushes, the Catcher needs to get the ball (catch with Catch), possibly dodge away from the LOS defender (we’ll ignore this, you should be able to take the fourth hit if the third wasn’t a pow), then they need get through the backline: (443) if they contest a fling landing or (543) for full 8-man backline, plus usually two rushes.

Plenty more failure points.

• (443)22 = 27%, 43% with team RR or
• (542)22 = 19%, 31% with team RR
• The pickup, pass, and catch (all with built‑in RRs) is 70% for (3)(3)(3), although you might need a relay catch (3) or 4+ pass for a deeper kick.

Combined odds including the 2D/3D/3D push chain and 443 dodges come out to roughly:

• ~7–9%
• ~21% with 1 RR
• ~28% with 2 RRs

These drop to ~5/13/17% if its a 543 dodge chain to finish. This is quite a big drop off and is enough for the fling toss to have slightly higher odds overall.

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Good news: I’ve already looked at TTMs recently.

Ignoring the ball for a moment, the TTM requires:

• 2+ Bonehead (Ogre), 3+ Pass to avoid a fumble, ~79% chance to be allowed a landing attempt (84% range minus 5–7% splat chance in contested landing), landing on 3/4/5 depending on throw quality and TZs (assume 4+) → 22% without RR, 39% with RR

^^we’re going to need this number later^^

The Fling also needs to catch the ball (3+ without Catch), and we need (3) pickup, (3) pass. Hopefully no relay required, since the Fling is standing on halfway. → ~52% for ball handling

After the toss, he needs to dodge through the backline (333 Stunty dodges) + one or two rushes about 44% of the time. → ~49%

Total TTM odds:

• ~6%
• ~14% with 1 RR
• ~20% with 2 RRs

One extra point: if TTM is your only option, you should probably blitz one of the landing‑zone defenders to reduce splat/TZ landing risk.

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Combined – Chain + Fling Toss

How much of an improvement do you get if you try both? This gets complicated, but it works out to roughly:

• ~10-13% to try pushing then pivot to TTM if necessary
• ~23% with 1 RR
• ~30% with 2 RRs

If one of our club members was a maths teacher (Dusher?), perhaps you could set this as homework for your Year 12s?

Responding to the Defence

Up to now I’ve largely assumed some sort of TTM-like defence with contested landing zone and 3 on the LOS.

Into this defence, if you commit to one route or the other rather than attempting both, it can be either a little easier to get 3D blocks improving the chance of being in range, or for the TTM you can consider either chaining the Fling forward a square to increase the chance of him being in range or you can spend your blitz taking down one of the players in the landing zone improving the likelihood of landing successfully. Committing either way, nets about a 1% bump on that branch, so it is better to pivot between the dual options.

However, the defence could choose to go for a hit-denial defence, making your pushes route harder while simultaneously making the Fling toss easier. If there is no backline, and nothing contesting the Fling landing then the TTM goes to about 9% if you can still take a step forward before the toss. As the push option is now trickier, this is likely your best bet.

As we saw above, if the defence go full-backline, with no-landing contest, then the backline dodges for the Catcher are harder AND the fling landing is easier. In this case there is more of a reason to go for the fling toss as that chain has the best chance and the hard rolls for the Catcher come after you have committed to that route.

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Everything above was preamble for the main event: optimising the sequencing.

Conventionally, into a contested landing zone, you would try the pushes first, then pivot to TTM if it fails. That’s fine, the pushes option is slightly higher odds, and you can get your three pushes without using the Ogre or Fling, so you aren’t compromising much by trying both.

But the problem we alluded to before is: do you reroll a both‑down or full pow? These rolls could end your chance to get the pushes you need, but they wouldn’t cause a turnover. So do you put in the reroll here or is it better to pivot and have it for the toss-line.

It’s tricky. You’re rerolling early in a long dice sequence. If you have 2 RRs, it’s probably optimal to put one in. However, If you only have 1 RR, you’re better pivoting to TTM. If you keep your RR and pivot, you have ~14% (TTM w/1RR) vs ~9–12% depending on how far through the push sequence you are and things like ball location.

^^That last sentence is useful to know.

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But what if we Fling the ‘Fling first (FFF)?

With FFF, you try all the TTM rolls (~22%) before giving the fling the ball.

Tossing the fling is the hardest part of the TTM sequence. The Ogre Bonehead and Pass rolls are both covered by Loner 3+, and you can’t modify the chance of landing out of range or splatting a defender.

The critical advantage is that if you FFF, the Fling isn’t carrying the ball, so any failed roll isn’t a turnover. You can take a bunch of hard rolls without it ending your OTTD attempt.

With FFF, you resolve the low-probabilities part of the TTM play without putting in any RRs into the Ogre rolls, and only consider rerolling a high probability landing (3+) in the open, in range.

This ordering lets you find out, for free, although possibly at the cost of the Fling, whether he’s made it in range and on his feet. If he has, and you can get the ball to him, he’ll have about 49% chance of dodging through the backline to score. Remember: the post‑catch movement of a Catcher is the toughest part of his sequence, usually at least a (443), sometimes a (543) finish. So, if you know the fling is an option, it usually is better to try it.

If the FFF works, you can commit to the fling route from this point and use your blitz to hit one of the forward pieces to make his route easier if necessary (e.g. if he landed in a TZ).

If the fling didn’t make it, as he didn’t land or didn’t get airborne, splatted, then you can pivot to the chain pushing line. The advantage now being that you know you’re now committed to this option and must reroll anything that ends the attempt. Note also, that on a short throw/Ogre bonehead/Fumble the Fling could be available for box-filling in the chain sequence.

There is a cost: you need to get the ball to the Fling and he’s now further away. But Humans have two Catchers, one of whom can become a relay piece. So you can (3+ SH pickup)(3+ pass)(3+ catch on relay) and then 3+ handoff the ball to the Fling, achievable from quite deep in your half. You might be trading an extra 3+ roll with catch for the information benefit about whether you need to RR or not.

I think this is quite a good option. Before deciding whether to FFF I would work out what the likely distances will be and whether the relay is a viable option. On a super-deep kick it might not be as appealing.

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I thought it would be useful to have a quick blast through how to set up for a dual-option human OTTD where you can choose to FFF if situations support it.

Against a 3-man tight LOS you can run the following sequence. Click through the slideshow to see the pushes etc.

If the defence set up with one square gaps in between, then it is still quite easy to get the 3 pushes using just 8 players. In the set up below, we hit down into the T, chaining the catcher between the other two defenders.

From there, it is simply fill the rest of the box with the spare lino and blitzer and hit diagonally upwards, then use the far left lino to hit into the new box to put the Catcher in range. The Ogre doesn’t need to contribute, he can just step in front of the Fling and Chuck him.

For a wide LOS, it is hard to get all the pushes with only 8 active pieces. So, instead, you could change to the hole filling method.

This option sees the first hit being a 2D needing pushes, but after that you can 3D, 3D, 2D with one of the 3Ds accepting a pow. Note that the Fling is touching the last defender so that that defender can’t act on a Charge or Perfect D kick off event. We step the Ogre diagonally to the NW of the fling to chuck him.

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OWA – Life is very similar with OWA except you only have one Catcher. This, sadly, means you don’t really have a relay catch option although you could consider a standard human. There is still a case for setting up for both options. If you went with a FFF, on a successful TTM would you could choose to chain the Catcher into the open so that you can use him to relay. All a bit messy and you might be better served committing to one line or the other.

With Trees now having Loner, Ogres are likely the more common Big Guy choice. However, if you have a Tree then the OTTD odds increase a bit (strong arm and rooted don’t kill the attempt), so the odds close and there is more of a case for committing to the toss route anyway.

Renegades – M7 pieces need 4 pushes and it is hard to find those pushes while using only 8 pieces. This means your Ogre/Troll needs to be positioned such that he contributes to the later blocks in the sequence. This is much easier to achieve from a pivoting perspective rather than FFF (or FGF). Overall the push OTTD with a rat (without Dodge) is quite low odds anyway to get in range and through the backline. Moreover, the Ogre/Goblin toss is much more likely to land in range. So, while theoretically possible to FGF, I think I’d commit to the Goblin toss line.

Underworld – This one I’d usually commit to the GR OTTD owing to his superior Ag getting him through the backline. If you have a ROgre with Juggs, getting the pushes is relatively high probability assuming your are rolling 3D into 3D. However, if you are running the Troll, or have induced Ripper, or your GR is off the field (so you are attempting the OTTD using the Blitzer instead), then throwing a Goblin/Snotling first becomes interesting again.

Goblins – Yes, I wasn’t really serious about pushing the Pogoer. Same issue as Renegades but now you don’t have lower Strength in general, and you don’t have the ROgre frenzy / juggs to help you. And, as we discussed recently, you really should be taking the Doom Diver!

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End

So there you have it. Next time you are attempting a OTTD with humans (with most of your team available and at least 1RR) consider FFF.

You got to the end, you might like some of our other tactics posts: