New puzzle, trying something new… .there is a video reveal
This one comes from a BB3 Arena match; Necro mirror vs Cynosarge. My opponent had a 6-1-0 record going into this match… in this season you need 7 wins with no draws to complete Arena, so he’s almost over the line.
It is Turn 1. The Red Necro have the ball on a wolf in an almost full-meat-cube. What would you do? Pic below is hard to interpret, so there’s a diagram version below that.
Can you spot my play..?
Once you have spotted your play you can watch the video of what I did below.
Dice rolled (and my decision points)
- 2+ Foul Appearance (I wouldn’t RR this, if it failed I would pivot to a different plan. 83%)
- 1D needing pushes or better (67%, wouldn’t RR, would eat the turnover)
- 2D needing pushes (55%, wouldn’t RR, would accept both down (wrestle), or pow. Would be interesting if he would choose to use dodge on a stumbles result)
- -2D needing pushes or better (44% would likely RR skulls but not both down, so 69%)
- 2D on ball carrier wanting a pow (55% would and did RR, so 80%)
- So, about 17% for ball down and drive destabilised
A reminder; this was Turn 1, hence why I wouldn’t be so keen to reroll the early dice here. However, if it was T6, my threshold for what was worth rerolling would have shifted.
It was an aggressive first turn. I always look for these opportunities but don’t always take them on. My usual early turn objectives are about destabilisation rather than hunting for turnovers. In this case, it wasn’t risk-free but the order of actions meant that my exposure wasn’t terrible upon failure.
After the sacking dice all worked, the friendly scatter and the 4/(3) to recover was a bonus that just rubbed salt into the wound. The odds of recovering the ball wasn’t part of the decision really; I knew there was a chance of the ball popping out to where I wanted it, but I anticipated the best I’d end the turn with would be a bunch of TZs on the ball square/recovery pieces.
From the downed ball point, I would have rerolled the pickup if needed as it was huge in terms of game EV to end turn 1 semi-caged with most of his team contained.
I was then able to stabilise over the next couple of turns, and went on to convert the turnover to a defensive score. My opponent conceded later in the game.
Did you find something better? Comment below
Leave a Reply