Option 1 – Chain wolf forward
This seemed like the obvious answer to me. Rush a Zombie in to fill the box behind the wolf and move another zombie to make an extra assist then 3D (Pushes or Pows) with the Fleshie to chain the Wolf NE.
Thereafter you have options; Ghoul Blitz or Ball Carrier Blitz… but which is best?
Go with feels here. Like you were playing with a time limit in game!
Option 1.1 Ghoul Blitz
Simply Blitz the top Blitzer with the Ghoul, pushes or pows would do. Dodge out the Wolf and bound down the touchline to score. We make this roll after resolving the two previous ones, so we might have 0, 1 or 2RRs left at this point
- No rerolls: 59.3%
- 1 reroll: 65.8%
- 2 rerolls; 87.8%
^^those stats are just from the point after the first 2+ 3D. The overall line from the start is 81% (2+/3D/2D/3+/2+ with 2RRs for the sequence).
If you 1/9 with the Ghoul Blitz the only option is to dodge back out again and head down the line with the wolf on 444322, so the numbers above assume that that would fail!
Option 1.2 Ball Carrier Frenzy Blitz
Blitz using with the ball-carrying wolf through the Wrestle Lino. To make it 2D you stand the downed Wraith and pop the other Wraith in to cancel defensive assists and provide the guard for if you get pushes on the first hit.
Here the ideal scenario is pushes for the first hit and then Pows on the second frenzy hit as then we wouldn’t need a dodge. However, if we roll a Pow on the first hit, we should accept it even though it would need a 3+ Dodge. If we rolled pushes and then more pushes we would need a 43 Dodge sequence.
This generates a bunch of options and branching probabilities.
5/9 you roll a pow on the first roll, 1/9 you would RR, after that RR there is 5/9 that you would pow. So, 61.7% we are taking the pow and doing a 3+ dodge.
There is a 3/9 we push on first hit and we also go down this line if we 1/9 the first block and then get pushes 3/9. So, 37% we take the second hit. Once you take the second hit there is 5/9 (55%) you get the pow and run it in.
Note: If you still have a RR after rolling pushes on the second block (3/9) it is better to reroll the block dice than save it for the dodges. With the block, 55% you get the pow after the RR, but 33% you get pushes again and can still try the 4/3 dodge. This gives an overall 67% success rate. If, instead, you keep the reroll for the 43 you get a total of 61% with RR.
There’s a lot of maths down this line, but overall the situation yields:
- No rerolls: 53.1% – Ghoul line is better
- 1 reroll 78.9% – Frenzy line is 13% better
- 2 rerolls 83.8% – Ghoul line is better again!
If this was turn 8, the Frenzy line has better removal chance (more pows + claws) but the target is lower value. As it was T16, this bit is irrelevant.
Note: we could dodge the Wolf to blitz the Blodge Blitzer. Either 3+ with an extra rush, or 4+. We can move the spare WW to provide the second assist, so it’s 2 into 2 but as its vs Blodge most likely we will need another 3+ to get out the far end.
Turn Ordering
For Option 1: Zombie rush goes first then 3D block. IF we don’t use a RR for these two rolls and have 2RR available, we go with 1.1 and blitz with the Ghoul. IF we used 1RR we go with the frenzy Wolf hit, and IF we used both RRs we go with the Ghoul blitz.
Option 2 – Hand Off
Perhaps this should have been the obvious one?
The Werewolf on the far left was put over there as an option on the turn before… so how about we use that option.
The simple version of this is a 2D hit with the Ghoul to move the Blitzer out of the way. If that was a push or better then the ball carrier can simply 3+ dodge and 3+ hand off.
If the Ghoul 1/9s, we could blitz with the Zombie or punch with the Fleshie and then blitz with the Zombie.
Overall, that means we end up with ~78%.
There is also quite a few easy ways to chain the Wolf free backward. For example, you could hit the blitzer with the Ghoul and follow, then put the left Fleshie in for an assist and pop the other Fleshie or Zombie just South of the Wolf and then corner blitz either of the Blitzers on the left of the formation. Chain into the downed player and pop the wolf out to the South East. A 1/9 on the first Ghoul hit and you can still pivot to the dodge version.
With that option we end up swapping a 3+ (dodge) to a 2D block needing pushes or better, and a 2+ rush, 2x easier rolls.
This gives the best overall outcome ~83% with 2RRs.
Option 3 – Ball-carrier Blitz then Dodge (without prior chain)
We could simply Blitz through either the Blitzer (Blodge) or the Dodge Lino in front. No need for the earlier 3D.
Option 3.1 – Blodge Blitzer
Hitting the Blodge blitzer saves us the 3D blockless hit to start, so we now know we will have 2RRs available. We trade the rush to fill the box for option 1 for one additional rush for the wolf at the end.
However, we are now hitting Blodge, so we are down to 1/18 knockdown. Again, ideally, a push then pow. Indeed, this has changed so much that we actually choose pushes on first hit and we shouldn’t RR pushes to fish for pows on the second hit.
Unsurprisingly, even with 2RRs this is worse at ~57%.
Option 3.2 Dodge Lino
Hitting the Lino isn’t as bad as the Blitzer but still is not as good as option 1 either.
We want a push (55%), then a pow for a 3+ dodge or push for a 43 again. However, this piece has dodge and we are only just in scoring range, so can’t accept a 1/9, which means the pow on the second hit is only 31%. Overall, we are about 1/6 to get push into pows. If we double Pow (or Stumbles and the defender chooses not to use Dodge) on the first hit we’d need a 5+ leap over the body. A 5+ leap with team reroll is 55% compared with even a 43 with reroll at 61%. So, they should choose not to use Dodge here.
There’s options here, but the best policy is to only reroll 1/9s, choose push on the first 2D if you can, but accept pows into 5+, and don’t RR pushes on the second set, accept the 4/3 dodge. This gives an overall for this part of the sequence of 72% (this is with 2RRs, as we haven’t rolled any dice before this).
However, we do need to double rush afterward, compared with single rush with the Option 1 lines.
Not bad, but not quite as good as either of option 1.
Option 4 – the Mega Chain
I want to cover off the more complex option. I spent awhile in game looking for this one then decided it wasn’t that good as the simple option!
We already have an easy box for the 3D Fleshie hit, but that forces the Wolf NE. However, if we can fill the second box, then we can force the Wolf North instead, chaining the dodge Lino NW.
To do that we can dodge the Ghoul (3+ with Dodge) and dodge the downed wraith (3+ without Dodge) – 59% for both to work without RR, 79% with RR. We also need the rush from the Zombie and 3D hit (same as option 1). So, overall we get to the next step 47/73/76%.
The purpose of these pre-rolls is to make the next step more likely. Now we can hit the Dodge lino with 2D into 2D frenzy. Again, Pushes into Pow sends us totally clear, Pow on first hit means 3+ dodge, pushes on second hit also means just one 3+ dodge rather than 43. Also, we can accept a 1/9 as we are one square closer to the endzone and as this lino doesn’t have Wrestle or Block. On the both down, we would need either a 5+ if first hit or a 3+ dodge in addition to the extra rush.
In the end, the 2 x Dodges + Frenzy through the Dodge lino comes out about 75%. So, while it is cooler than Option 1 and better than Option 2. Sadly the simple, obvious one is the best I’ve found!
Maybe you can find something better?
What happened?
I went for option 1 and snaked the rush first action! Oh well. I was winning 2-0, so it didn’t matter… I turned the position into a puzzle as I wasn’t 100% sure that my solve was the best option available and I then I thought the position to be quite interesting when I realised that the frenzy 2D vs Ghoul 2D odds shifted based on #RRs at that point.
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