Classic human behavioural patterns to look for in your oppo to exploit., and traits to identify in yourself and try to improve.
1. People tend to repeat what worked last time (confirmation bias). If your opponent gets success in some action, if they get lucky, then you can expect them to lean into that luck. Exploit this by inviting overextension. Set a trap: something that looks similar but that you can exploit.
Evolution is a powerful driver.
2. People are stubborn. Once a player commits to a line, they are more likely to continue to press it rather than abandon it in light of new information. You can use this to predict their next move.
Look at your own play. The most obvious one would be putting “good” rerolls in after bad.
3. Pressure makes people simplify their thinking. Time or emotional stress makes players fall back on instinct; copying familiar patterns. Steadily increasing pressure throughout a game increases predictability and is more likely to lead to points 1 or 2 becoming true!
This is also why targeted practice improves play: when you are relying on instinct, having well-honed instincts help! It is also part of why new teams do well, why off-meta builds can have success, and why the meta shifts. The familiar instinctual patterns perhaps don’t work as well against the different approach.
4. People aren’t good at judging relative risk… especially when emotions are involved. Feelings don’t change maths. This one is more about you as a player… always be aware of the fail state regardless how likely an outcome. Make it a 3D, don’t do the unnecessary rush, put the bobble box in.
5. You can influence your opponent’s decisions. Your positioning, tempo and threats can shape how your opponent feels about the board. Making a risky play look safe, or a safe play look risky can steer their choices.
As GreenskinPhil said to me during a game: “what’s better than one scoring threat, two scoring threats.” He is correct, and it’s good advice. But the statement at that time was also shaping how I saw the board.
6. Managing your own psychology will help you win games. If you can be aware of, and control, your own tendencies, if you can stay calm, stick to the optimal sequencing and expected value based decisions your win rate will increase.
Deep breath, go to the bar/toilet, whatever you need to reset.
Then make a conscious decision to:
Judge the board in front of you and the dice you are about to roll as independent from all the previous board states and dice rolls.
A personal note:
My watch measures “stress”… here is pics from last weekend. I had a one-day tournament on the Saturday where I played the England captain in the middle game, and was playing for the championship in the last game… Sunday was a lot more chilled (with the notable exception of one online world-cup qualifier).
I don’t know how accurate the readings are, but I do think managing the psychological impact of the game is part of the process of increasing consistency.
This post is a response to the more in depth discussion as part of the game theory series – see original behavioural game theory post here.
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