A recent post by Coach Borosboy and then some of their follow-up articles bemoaned, at length, the state of Lizardmen after experiencing a slow start in league play. The comments stimulated some debate in the BB community.
So, I thought I’d explore some of the original comments; are Lizards actually a bad team not worthy of their “universal praise”, or is it just the challenges of a newish player exhibiting Dunning-Kruger effect while struggling to adapt to a different playstyle?
Anything in quotes here is directly from the Borosboy post. I’ve tried to be fair with covering the context.
“Rarely Played”
Let’s start with the strong statement in the title… is it true that Lizards are unpopular? Surely that will be correct if you are going to lead with it!
We can look at fummbl data for first season teams only as its easy and gives a large data set. I used the number of teams that played at least 1 game in open or blackbox; 9252 teams total across all races. Of those, Lizardmen played 330. ~1/28 of matches played.
Humans and Orcs are always near the top of the most played list, but the comment really was that the Lizards are underplayed relative to their Tier 1 status. Tiering is subjective and GW tiers are obvs off, but here are some others that are more meaningful to compare.
| Race | # of first game played |
| Lizardmen | 330 |
| Amazon | 323 |
| Dark Elf | 367 |
| High Elf | 392 |
| Necro | 364 |
| Undead | 412 |
| Wood Elves | 268 |
Looks about right. Lizards are in the middle of the pack really.
The other quick analysis that was easy to do on fummbl was to look at Open matches below 1300TV in the last 30 days. So here you go:
Lizards on 99, Zons 66, Woodies 76, DE 111 etc. Middle of the pack again. Not rare.
Although it is still using 2020 rules, I also had a quick look at the last season of the ladder on BB3. Instead of looking at games played, looking at number of teams as a different way to look at popularity.
| Race | Teams in Ladder |
| Lizardmen | 122 |
| Amazon | 113 |
| Dark Elf | 112 |
| Necro | 112 |
| Undead | 166 |
| Wood Elves | 82 |
Decent.
One final stat – of my own 1100+ games played on BB3 to date, 6.8% (~1/15) have been against Lizards. They are my 3rd most common opponent after Orcs and Dwarves.
It is fair to point out that the online environment is different from TT leagues. The opportunity to play lots of games quickly means that teams that develop slowly or come into their own at higher TV are more appealing online. Although the consistency in these data between fummbl with redraft and BB3 ladder, and my mixed environments doesn’t make me think this is just an online thing.
However, do the data support lizards being “rarely played” do “so few actually play them”?
My verdict is: not really. They are where you’d expect, but what do you say?
“Saurus have no functional combat skills. None”
The central tenet of the borosboy’s post is that Saurus lack of block makes them unreliable to the extent of being unplayable. It is certainly true that blockless blocks are risky, no argument there… they don’t start with block. 1/9s happen.
The point that is questionable is the quote above. Doubly asserting that Juggernaut is definitely not a functional combat skill. Seems bold.
Blitzing is combat. Juggs counters stand firm and fend, turns both down results into pushes, and cancels wrestle. Four discrete functions that each have utility in different game states. It certainly provides opportunities. It not being Block is true, but the cancelling of wrestle means it synergises really well Block. It also synergises really with Frenzy for sideline denial.
And there is contextual advantage of Juggs over Block. 97% of the time before RR, you can get at least a push irrespective of your opponent’s skills. This can be huge against any team that is trying to curtail Lizardman movement. You can more reliably get off a Treeman, Fleshie, Bloater, and can leave after a 1/9 vs a Block piece. That repositioning of one player with M6 is huge for pitch control and particularly in those games where you can’t strength-bully your opponent, Juggs creates movement which allows assists elsewhere. There’s no need for your team to be “90K traffic cones”.
And then you have the one turn. Juggs makes a 2D blitz 75% push before RR rather than 55%. Vs S3, the first hit is usually 2D with the next two 3D, so anything improving that first hit has substantial improvement in overall odds.
“you get one blitz per turn, everything else is a prayer”
Yes, you only get to use Juggs once per turn. But you also always have the opportunity to have one blitz per turn.
Throughout the article there is a recurrent presumption that the dinos will get 3.5-4.5 blocks/turn. The maths of expected CAS per game are predicated on a 72 Saurus hit per game scenario. I don’t know the standard of opponent he’s up against, but if he’s averaging 72 hits a game something is a bit off.
The block failure maths calculations also assumes that each of the blocks are meaningful, that they need to be taken, that the 1/9 risk is relevant. We all hate blockless blocks. Not taking a high variance hit is often better. The point that block gives you more opportunities and that they “cascade” is true; but the level of hand-wringing woe around its absence is overblown.
“BB2025 Made it Worse”
Playing with rookie dinos in 2025 (compared with 2020) means you can now reduce the variance of your inherent 1/9s by making your blitz the first action. It can be the hit that matters most. This change in turn ordering to what you might have chosen to do if you had a couple of block pieces will influence other decisions. This does mean that rookie dinos do need some finessing, but the juggs blitz to reduce tail risk where needed is an important improvement. Indeed, it makes Lizardmen much more lower variance than 2020.
Of course, you do pay for it. Juggs is a good skill. But the de-facto 30K cost of having 6x juggs on the team hurts for starting rosters within limits, that much is certainly true but I disagree with “30K of TV for nothing”.
We’re going to talk about development in the next section; however, one of the development advantages of Juggs is that the players without block can still get low risk hits via the blitz. This means that, compared with 2020, you can continue to spread out the SPP and don’t end up with one block, mb, tackle, sf, frenzy Monster while having a 0SPP gecko starved of hits.
Secure the ball for Skink pickups is also a small,but important, 2025 improvement, especially vs rats/elves where a 1/9 on the pickup could be game losing. Yes, Saurus don’t get this boon but they never did and using fewer RRs for pickups = more RRs for essential blocks, coupled with juggs this means the starting team is less variable than 2020.
Top lizard coach point
I asked some Lizardmen coaches to comment on this post. Let’s hear from DayDay who has 98 lizardmen TT games logged with 69%+ win rate and 221 rating.
“The biggest challenge for me whenever I have taken lizards in leagues is the MNG spiral. This is better for lizards in 2025 with the change to the apo now being 50/50 to be a badly hurt so 75 percent chance to save or keep the Saurus in the game.
I think what is also forgotten is even if you do consider lizards immobile when tagged (which they are not for the reasons you have mentioned) the skinks are movement 8 so in theory you only need to move 3 or 4 squares into the opponents half to have a decent scoring threat. Even if the opponent screens it’s sometimes just a couple of 3s and you are in which is not ideal but also not awful.”
Top lizard coach point 2
I also got input Loki (David Muirhead). Team Scotland’s most capped coach. 200+ rated coach from 125 NAF TT matches. He’s also played every race at tournaments and currently working toward getting them all above 150.
“You forgot the shadowing improvement for chameleons. That 4+ doesn’t come up often but when it does it usually influences an important point in the game. Or is just hilarious.”
“SPP Starvation”
The important point above about block numbers being lower than expected, realigns expectations on how slowly Lizardmen should expect to acquire SPP. They are actually even more starved than the post makes out.
However, the narrative and maths of his experience indicate that there is space for conceptual improvement in his levelling approach.
In 5 games he amassed only 22 SPP on 6 Saurus with only 2 Saurus levelling up. 1 Cas per game (which is in line with expectations for a more reasonable 35-50 blocks/game).
“this is not bad luck.
This is the design”
I disagree with these points.
MVPs can now be applied randomly to 1 of 6 selected players. This point again massively disagrees with “BB2025 Made It Worse” as now every MVP will go on a Saurus. So after 5 games, averaging 1 CAS and earning one MVP per game, you should have 30 SPP split between your 6 Saurii (Sauruses?). So, even if you are getting your CAS completely randomly, then it is unlucky to not have reached 6 SPP on more than 2 by this point.
But CAS shouldn’t be totally random.
After game 1, you will have one Saurus with an MVP (and most likely a different one or two with a CAS). Likely about 1/6 to get a skill straight away. But thereafter you can improve the odds; the player with 4SPP now becomes your primary blitzer for game 2. You won’t be able to use him every turn, but whenever there is an opportunity to choose who is going to hit a soft target, it’s the MVP-boi. Considering he will get blocks too, it is not unreasonable for him to get 10+ of your ~40 hits.
This is the same concept as when you have a MB tackle blitzer; you look for ways to increase their number of hits. The difference here is that this dino isn’t any more dangerous to your opponent to the other big lizards, so he won’t be specifically protected against and/or targeted for hits and fouls.
Still, he is only ~25% to pick up a CAS (~10 hits each with 1/36 vs AV9) in game 2.
But, at the end of game 2, you have another MVP which could land on any Saurus that has already got a CAS or the MVP-boi. Combined, its about >50% that you have at least one block after 2 games.
If you don’t, then in game 3 you will have at least 2 players that are starting that game 2SPP away from a level. It is easier to give either of them priority hits. Turn 1 when receiving, for example, one blitzes and the other takes a LOS block. You are up to probably >15 overall hits with those 4SPP pieces, ~50% that either will pop someone at reach a skill. And then you have MVP #3 and other random Cas.
Once you have one block, as either through MVP+Cas or 2x MVP, you now take blocks with block-boi early on the turn but still prioritise blitzing and getting hits with the blockless 4SPP Saurus.
Following a prioritised development plan, in 2025 rules, it is actually unlucky not to have 2 levels up by the end of game 3 and more like 3-4 by game 5.
Fummbl stats for Lizardmen progression show average CTV after game 1 is 1022 , game 2 1069, by game 5 its 1129, game 6, 1160, game 7 1196. Some of that is adding the Krox and apo or 3rd RR to the starting build, but also within that are MNG/deaths, and skills (including on skinks).
For comparison Norse game 5 are at 1073 in identical scenarios, Chosen 1140, Human 1116, BO 1139, DE 1155.
These data support that Lizards develop at similar rates to other teams.
BUT Lizards can suffer from bad luck and you could say they suffer more.
Top Lizard Coach Point 3 and 4
This seems like a good time to drop in BenbowBaggins comments. Benbow is frequently found at the top of the BB3 ladder with his Dinos, he is >200 rated with Lizards on TT. You can watch him online playing in the Superleague. He knows his Dinos.
Benbow with my clarifications in brackets:
“Interesting debate. You (Camelchops) have pretty much nailed it. I always feel like most people who rant about something being unfair in bb are just doing it wrong. However, TV 1000 lizards are really shit. Either 1RR with positionals or 2RR no Krox is brutal.” Any MNGs or deaths slows you down ever more as you are starting with loner Skinks instead of some kind of lino you could use on the los (in other teams). If he’s (Borosboy) ended up playing rookie lizards with big lads missing, it’s not surprising he is having a shit time”
(Borosboy started with 4 saurus and a Krox… down 1-2 big boys)
^^note… even top lizard coaches don’t “universally praise” lizards, like every team they have weaknesses.
Loki also commented on development,
“The point you didn’t cover is that Saurus touchdowns should be something you are looking for. If you are dominating a drive/game, take that 5+ handoff whenever you can.”
“Combat skills… (Lizardmen) start BB2025 already miles behind”
Zons, Chosen, Renegades, Khorne, Nurgle, Ogre, Slann, Vampire, Snotlings, Goblin, Halflings. No block, wrestle or brawler on the starting roster. They, like Juggs on lizards, have other tools that can help combat in different ways; MB, frenzy, dodge, hit and run, stand firm, steady footing, hypnodazzle. But they are all making 2D blocks with 1/9 fail states.
Then we have a bunch of teams with 2x block pieces. Humans, Orcs, DE – (who all lost block-carrying positionals and start with 2 block), while Necro, Undead, Skaven stayed at 2, UW have 1. The thing about all of these is that ‘zards out the S3 block pieces. So, you can neutralise them. In much the same way that popping a zombie controls Lizards, you can plonk a dino on the block pieces and by positioning your friendly big lizards appropriately ensure that its either a dodge away (33% fail state for most of these ag3+ pieces) or a -2D (31% fail state)… worse than your 1/9s!
But… the article is fundamentally correct in an important way
Obvs the original post was a mix of exaggeration for engagement and standard AI-induced hyperbole, but I get where the messaging has come from. It is certainly interesting to see how a new player responds so viscerally to these things.
Despite the points above, aspects of the article ring true.
Lizards aren’t an easy starting team out of the box. They’re certainly not as forgiving to new players as Norse, OWA, etc. Block reduces variance, and you will get stung with critical 1/9s or 1/81s.
That doesn’t mean that lizards are bad though. It also doesn’t mean that its poor design. Our whole game has inbalances and part of the joy of a game with so much depth is that even once you think you’ve mastered one race, there’s more to learn.
For Lizards, it means you need you to adapt your playstyle to reflect the inherently higher variance of a blockless team.
Indeed, all teams are high variance in one way or another at low TV. They’re always missing something. That’s why competitive players aren’t fans of poverty-bowl rulesets. Increasing the reliance of good or not bad dice decreases the impact of coach skill.
If you want to deep dive into EV/variance we have a few posts going up about Game Theory that might be of interest.
For Lizards, getting the most of the team means using the tools you have to your advantage, same as any other team. Lizards are bullies. You can’t get away from them. They can force you into lots of unprofitable dodges (CAS aren’t the only way to get players off the pitch). Moreover, they don’t actually need removals to win. They don’t need to dominate space and are less worried about tempo loss than other Strength teams, yet they do have the strength concentration to stabilise when needed. They also have a very strong one turn (further improved with juggs) and a great short drive offence, so forcing in your opponent for early scores and a 2-1 grind are viable
In writing this post I looked through my camera for some nice lizardmen pics and was pleased to stumble across this pic from my first ever NAF tournament, first game vs Gedrosi and his lizards. I think i had played maybe 3 TT games before that. I was playing necro, I wonder if i had started with lizards I’d feel differently? 210 NAF games later, it was a nice memory to stumble across of where my tournament journey began.
Other comments from Coaches
Adam. “Currently playing Lizards but I play for fun more than anything and have to say they are an entertaining team to play with. I think the OP has lost sight of that in the game”
Andrew “That stats speak for themselves (Lizardmen) are popular and have a good win rate… One thing you haven’t covered could have been a section called “Skinks – what more do you want?” Anyone who’s played flings looks at skinks with envy and chorfs have either centaurs (awesome but Ag4 and unsteady) or hobgoblins as ball carriers. I’d love a skink on chorf roster”
CLAW Blood Bowl 
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